Applied Simulation‑Based Numerical Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Performance under Climatic Conditions in Western Libya

AREEJ ALMABROUK ALI ALMAELOUL ¹          FARIDA ASSAGHIR  AMAR ALKLABI²

Department of Physics.. College of Education Al-Ajailat

University of Zawia. Libya

a.almaeloul@zu.edu.ly                      f.alklabi@zu.edu.ly

https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1595-6477            https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0250-675X

 Abstract:

Libya possesses high solar energy potential, with annual GHI exceeding 2,000 kWh/m² across much of the country. Yet peer‑reviewed performance assessments of grid‑connected PV systems in western Libya remain scarce. This study presents a simulation‑based numerical evaluation of a 10 kWp rooftop PV system in the Tripoli metropolitan area (32°53′N, 13°11′E), a region with a hot semi‑arid Mediterranean climate. Hourly meteorological inputs were sourced from PVGIS v5.2 and NASA POWER and cross‑checked against ground measurements from twelve Libyan sites. Performance metrics were calculated according to IEC 61724‑1:2021. Module temperature was modelled via the NOCT approach and validated against on‑site measurements from Tripoli. Uncertainty was propagated using Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) and input contributions were ranked through Sobol sensitivity analysis. The system achieved an annual PR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.82–0.89), a final yield of 1,685 kWh/kWp and a capacity factor of 19.2%. Irradiance uncertainty dominated output variance, followed by module temperature. The PR aligns with the 0.78–0.83 range measured in Tripoli by Teyabeen et al. (2024). The study delivers the first uncertainty‑quantified performance baseline for western Libya and a reproducible framework for data‑sparse North African settings.

Keywords: Photovoltaic systems; performance ratio; IEC 61724‑1; western Libya; numerical modeling; uncertainty quantification.